Strategic Communication between Beijing and Taipei: Brinkmanship Without Dialogue
Posluchárna Václava Havla, Křížkovského 12
18. 2. 2026 od 16:45
This talk examines the current cross–Strait tension through a game-theoretic lens. Since the DPP
administration under Tsai Ing-wen took power, official dialogue between China and Taiwan has
largely ceased, driven by Beijing’s insistence on the “1992 Consensus” and Taipei’s refusal to
endorse it. What has emerged is a strategic standoff characterized by harsh rhetoric, military
signaling from China, and Taiwan’s continued emphasis on de facto independence. This
interaction resembles a classic brinkmanship or “chicken game,” where each side seeks to
compel the other to yield. However, if misinterpreted, it risks transforming into a prisoner’s
dilemma in which mutual escalation leads to conflict. Political language and public
statements now function as a critical substitute for formal dialogue, serving as a new channel of
strategic communication. Paradoxically, firm and responsive rhetoric from both sides can
stabilize expectations and clarify intentions, making this confrontational discourse not merely a
sign of danger, but also a new and necessary form of communication.
Yu-Sung Su is a Professor of Political Science at Tsinghua University, where he teaches courses in comparative political development, democratization, quantitative analysis, political methodology, game theory, and big data analytics for social science. He received his Ph.D. in Political Science from the City University of New York, following prior graduate training at Columbia University. His academic formation reflects a strong interdisciplinary orientation that combines comparative politics with advanced quantitative and statistical methodology. He focuses on Latin American politics, East Asian politics, and Chinese politics in comparative perspective. Professor Su’s articles appeared in journals such as Democratization, Biometrika, The Annals of Applied Statistics, Journal of Statistical Software, Global Environmental Change, and the Journal of Chinese Political Science. Professor Su is also the author of Propensity Score Matching: From Statistical Correlation to Causal Inference, a widely used methodological monograph that systematically introduces matching methods for applied social science research. Besides, he is a core contributor to several widely used R packages,
including arm, mi, and r2jags, which support regression modeling, multiple imputation, and Bayesian analysis via JAGS.
Přednášku pořádají Katedra politologie a evropských studií a Katedra asijských studií díky podpoře projektu Global Taiwan Chair.